New York’s S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Show a Mixed Bag of Results

Posted by Gatlin on

Throughout my assessment of the current real estate market, I like some diversity in the analysis of data. Today’s blog will focus on information out of New York via Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. This index provides both seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted data that helps track the path of single family homes in 20 large metropolitan areas across the country. Most analysis requires a time lag to post and interpret the data. The figures we are viewing are from November of 2009. With S&P/C-SHP Index we can look at individual metro areas or view the index from a 10-city or a 20-city composite to assess trends in home pricing. The good news is that most markets are showing improvement. Home prices are off their peak, but the rate of decline has slowed. Some of the country’s best markets are entering positive territory for the first time in 2 years like; Dallas, Denver, San Diego, and San Francisco. On the flip side, markets in; Las Vegas, Charlotte, Seattle, and Tampa are putting in lower prices that may establish the bottom for higher values in the future.

February Index Results

All this information is interesting, but each of us must utilize it in some way that benefits our lives. For some, the figures show that extreme bubble-inflated real estate markets are still searching for a bottom. There also seems to be a trend that; upbeat, fun, climatically-favorable markets are among the first real estate markets to recover. For those of you considering the Great Smoky Mountains, as a place for real estate purchase or sale, this current data supports us. While this area of East Tennessee saw growth at the peak, we were not unrealistic like other markets. Our area is like many of the markets that are first to recover. The Smokies has a great location, we have fun amenities available, and our climate and scenery are beautiful. We are a top location for the eastern half of the nation. Contact the Jason White Team today, to secure your personal slice of paradise for; a primary residence, a vacation home, or an investment property.

Now is a great time to view vacant land!!  Here are a few of my outstanding current listings nestled in the upscale neighborhood of Riversong:

Private-Close to Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge
This private upscale subdivision has a common access to boulder strewn river for swimming and fishing. This lot can be built on the downside allowing for sloping drive.
Type: Land
Location: Sevierville,TN
Price: $54,900
Get more information >
Upscale Neighborhood-Close to Smoky Mtns
This property is convenient to Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge and Sevierville but in a private, serene, wooded, upscale, subdivision which offers common access to the river for swimming and fishing.
Type: Land
Location: Sevierville,TN
Price: $64,900
Get more information >
One Mile to Great Smoky Nat’l Park!
This private lot is gently rolling, mountainous and wooded. Located in the upscale subdivision of Riversong which offers common access to the river for swimming or fishing and is centrally located for convenience.
Type: Land
Location: Sevierville,TN
Price: $64,900
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Exclusive Home Site w/Mountain View
This level road access property offers a exclusive home site in a private, serene, wooded environment with mountain view.
Type: Land
Location: Sevierville,TN
Price: $54,900
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Two Mtn Lots/ Serene/Wooded /Sevierville
Two lots combined in subdivision to make one fantastic private lot with no close neighbors and common area access to the river for swimming and fishing.
Type: Land
Location: Sevierville,TN
Price: $74,900
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Pending Home Sales Show Improvement and Stabilization

Posted by Gatlin on

My news sources out of the National Association of Realtors in Washington, DC, show improvement continues in pending home sales. For new readers, the Pending Home Sales Index is a tool for measuring U.S. residential sales. A pending home sale is a home under a written contract, but not officially closed. Usually, these pending sales officially close within 1-2 months.

This index uses a level of 100 to be equal to the average home contract activity of 2001. This was year one in utilizing the “PHSI” and it was the first of five back-to-back record years, in existing-home sales. NAR’s data on the “Index” figures, combined with comments from Lawrence Yun, confirmed my views on recent Smokies’ home sales. Mr. Yun is NAR’s chief economist and his comments are valuable in understanding U.S. real estate trends. The chief economist feels last year’s home market responded to the homebuyer tax credit stimulus. We saw robust activity in the Smokies and across the U.S. as the homebuyer stimulus approached it’s deadline. Congress later renewed and expanded the homebuyer tax credit for qualified buyers, to get new homes under contract by April 30, 2010. Buyers have until June 30th, 2010 to finalize their contracts and be eligible for the tax credit. In retrospect, last year’s home market was driven by lower-end new home sales and by deep-discount foreclosures. Sales reached a crescendo with the deadline of the home buyer stimulus. Activity plummited with the end of the first tax credit.

However, the expanded extension of the homebuyer tax credit is slowly rebuilding a momentum that will likely peak in April of this year, and then possibly back off. The analysis of monthly raw data always lags current activity, but here is the latest PHSI data. November of 2009 dropped 16.4% from its upward trend in previous months to an index reading of 95.6. Then December of 2009 increased 1% to an index of 96.6. This gain is most likely stimulus-driven, but it remains 10.9% above December of 2008.

Feb. Index

 A quick look at this material indicates a home buying market that was government-driven. However, a deeper focus reveals some positive indicators. The underlying trend seems to be a firming in price stability and a gradual improvement in overall home buyer sentiment. The downturn in new home construction is not building the inventory of homes for sale. The current lack of a good safe haven for people’s savings combine with uncertainty over the future of the U.S. dollar. This makes real estate attractive as an investment. Market demand for low priced homes and discounted foreclosures removes their lingering influence from forcing home values lower, thus allowing prices to stabilize.

Today’s real estate buyer or seller faces uncertainty across a global economy. At some point each individual must decide for themselves what is best. Here in the Smokies, we have; location, climate, and natural beauty in our favor. Currently, mortgage rates are near historic lows, and there is a good inventory of property for sale. If you are buying or selling real estate in Tennessee’s Great Smoky Mountains, enlist a professional with a great track record. Please contact me, Jason White, at the  Jason White Team today to get started on your goal.

                                  Here are a Couple of My Latest Listings:

Mt LeConte Views from Gatlinburg Home!!
Custom built,many hand crafted features,gourmet kitchen with Brazilian granite counter tops,plus huge master bedroom on the main level. Even a separate living quarter on lower level.
Type: Single Family Home
Location: Gatlinburg ,Tennessee
Price: $598,700
Get more information >
Level Lot/ Walk to Club House,Ski Resort
This gently rolling property is convenient to everything. community pools, tennis courts, ski resort and tram to take you into town.
Type: Land
Location: Gatlinburg ,Tennessee
Price: $35,000
Get more information >

Late Winter Real Estate Mirrors our Smoky Mountain Bears

Posted by Gatlin on

Data just arrived for January 2010 home sales, provided by the Great Smoky Mountains Association of Realtors. The results remind me of our Appalachian black bears. Normally our East Tennessee bears are peacefully denned-up, sleeping soundly with their activity increasing with the arrival of spring.  They emerge from dens as nature once again commences growing its banquet of food. Following this timing, the bears increase their activity on a quest for calories  to carry them through these cold lean months of winter. There can always be exceptions to behavior in the animal kingdom or in real estate.  However, it was not unexpected that January 2010 residential sales are acting much like our well-known black bears.  Homesales are backing off, taking a break, before picking up their usual spring-induced activity just like our Smoky Mountain bears.

As we interpret January data from 2009 vs 2010 the strong influence of foreclosures and first-time homebuyers is evident. The total residences sold is up 3% in January 2010, with 77 sold, opposed to 75 sold in 2009.

Quantity of homes sold Jan 2009 vs 2010

Total dollar volume sold in January 2010 is off 8%, or $1,117,240.00 down from 2009’s $14,584,387 figure.

Dollar volume sold Jan 2009 vs 2010

The average sale in January 2010 is down 10% or $19,560.00 from 2009’s $194,458.00 average.

 Average sale price Jan 2009 vs 2010

In active listings, 2010 leads 2009 by 15% or 512 more, with 2010 leading at 3,866 listings.

Quantity of active homes Jan 2009 vs 2010

From previous blogs and newsletters, my readers were aware that new homebuyers and foreclosures dominated 2009’s home market. With the extended stimulus package in place through early 2010, these 2 aspects will more than likely continue for at least the early portion of 2010 as well.

If you are considering 2010 as a time to buy or sell property in the Smokies, the current environment is still favorable. Qualified buyers can obtain historically low interest rates on mortgages. Potential weakness in the dollar could make hard assets like real estate a good investment for the future. There are good opportunities to find your ideal property with the current inventory of active listings.

For sellers, well-priced properties at the lower end of the market are selling briskly. This allows one to sell less expensive homes and upgrade into more desireable residences. In either case of buying or selling real estate in the Smokies, contact a leader with a proven track record. Contact us today at The  Jason White Team , online or by phone, to get started on your property goals for 2010.

                           Here are a Couple of My Latest Listings:

1.3 acre w/ Spectacular Mountain Views
Quiet living on 1.3 acres with phenomenal MT Leconte and Smoky Mountain views and lots of level parking. 5 Private suites, with loft and game room located on cul-de-sac. Plus two huge decks to enjoy the incredible views of the mountains.
Type: Single Family Home
Location: Gatlinburg ,Tennessee
Price: $449,000
Get more information >
Exquisite Lofty Mountain Retreat!!
Detail and excellent craftsmanship throughout this lofty mountain home will please even the most discriminating buyer. Complete with an outdoor living space with fireplace that overlooks Mt. LeConte views.
Type: Single Family Home
Location: Gatlinburg ,Tennessee
Price: $575,000
Get more information >

Pending Home Sales Slows, But Remains Above 2008 Levels

Posted by Gatlin on
My blog readers may recall this expected market action from earlier news reports out of the National Association of Realtors in Washington, D.C., NAR chief economist, Lawrence Yun reaffirmed that the drop in the Pending Home Sales Index was anticipated. Home buyers scrambling to beat the initial deadline for the tax credit caused a wave of activity that crested with the origional deadline for the tax credit. Many analysts at the NAR predicted that the rise in the PHSI would halt as the old tax credit ended and its’ new expanded replacement builds momentum. Yun is optimistic that another surge of new home buyers will enter the market this spring. Although Pending Home Sales backed off its streak of consecutive increases, the Index remains above last year’s levels. NAR’s chief economist thinks the U.S. home market is building momentum on its own, but expects another 900,000 first-time home buyers to utilize the extended tax credit along with 1.5 million repeat buyers. Yun feels that low mortgage rates and increases in job growth will help the real estate market. Excess housing inventory will continue to decrease. All this should help in stabilizing home prices in 2010.
                                                   Pending Home Sales Index

The Pending Home Sales Index fell in all 4 regions of the country. Home sales in the West fell the least. Next in line is in the South, where the Index fell 15.0% to a reading of 97.8, but stayed 14.7% above 2008’s levels. An index level of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity on homes in 2001. This was the first year the index was used.

If you are considering a real estate purchase in the Smokies, now is a great time. Mortgage interest rates are at historically low levels and will probably increase. Inventory of properties for sale is up, so selection is good. The tax credit is in effect through April 30th and it could put $6,500-$8,000 in your pocket, if you qualify. So if you are seriously thinking about buying or selling  Smokies real estate in 2010, contact the Jason White Team. Our expertise and knowledge of the area has made us a leader in helping people buy or sell property in the Great Smoky Mountains. Contact us online or by phone to get started today.

                      Here are a Couple of My Latest Listings:

Incredible Smoky Mountain/Valley Views!
This home is truly Above and Beyond. Even has an elevator! The mountain and valley views are worth viewing this home! Incredible log details throughout.
Type: Single Family Home
Location: Wears Valley
Price: $699,900
Get more information >
Lots of Windows to Enjoy Mountain View!
Beautiful views from this contemporary home. Lots of windows bring the outside in. If you need storage this home is for you with plenty of closet space and even a separate living space in the lower level with it’s own entrance. Great in-law quarter!
Type: Single Family Home
Location: Gatlinburg ,Tennessee
Price: $135,000
Get more information >

A Pleasant Look Back At 2009

Posted by Gatlin on

As we enter into 2010, it is interesting to briefly review what happened to real estate in the Smokies in 2009. Past results do not always dictate future direction, but they can show trends or motivate us to take action. For our analysis, I pulled data from the Great Smoky Mountains Association of Realtors. The figures I reference are for residential property sold, they do not include; multi-family, commercial, or vacant land.  We will compare Jan 1, 2009 through December 31, 2009 versus the same in 2008 a year ago.

Comparison Chart

In looking at the figures, there is some good news. Like the stock market last year, real estate rebounded with the number of residences sold increasing slightly. The total dollar volume sold and the average residence price sold was off 8% from 2008’s figures. I think it is safe to say that; foreclosures, short sales, and first time home buyers were a driving force in 2009’s real estate market. The active lower price sector of residential sales was driven by first-time homebuyers scrambling to utilize the tax credit. When you combine this activity with red hot foreclosure sales in ’09, it is easy to see why dollar volume sold and average price sold is lower than in ’08. In the area of active listings, 2009 saw an increase of 16% over the previous year.

Taking all this information into account, we can see that residential real estate is still active. For qualified buyers, it is a great time to buy.  Mortgage rates are quite low, home prices are reasonable, and there is a good selection of properties for sale. For sellers, there is good news as well. The final months of 2009 brought renewed activity across all price levels of homes. Higher priced homes may not be selling as fast as the entry level home market, but competitively-priced residences are selling. If 2010 looks like your time to buy or sell a property in the Smokies contact The Jason White Team. You can easily get started on our website. Your privacy and time-saving property searches were key elements in building our site. Log on or call us to get started finding your property today.