Home Prices Increased 19.7% from a Year Ago in July!

The latest edition of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed that home prices increased 19.7% from a year ago in July, marking the fourth consecutive month of record growth in the more than 30-year history of the index.

“The last several months have been extraordinary not only in the level of price gains, but in the consistency of gains across the country,” said Craig J. Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P DJI, in the report.
The big picture: The fast pace of home-price appreciation the market is now seeing is sure to continue to draw comparisons to the housing bubble back in the early-to-mid 2000s that — when it burst — largely formed the basis for the Great Recession. But analysts warn that the situation is very different right now.

 

“This market is rooted in much different (and far less dangerous) fundamentals,” Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a research note.

 

The last housing bubble was driven by the subprime mortgage boom, but regulations imposed since then mean that lenders must ensure a borrower’s ability to pay back any loan they receive. Instead, this time home prices are rising because of the short supply of homes for sale across the country, which is increasing competition for properties amid high levels of demand.

What they’re saying: “While late summer indicators suggest some buyer fatigue, home-price growth is likely to remain in double digits through the remainder of 2021,” said CoreLogic deputy chief economist Selma Hepp.

Click here to read the entire article

U.S. homebuilder sentiment rose in September

Why? Lower lumber prices and strong housing demand! 

According the the National Associations of Home Builders, Builders are enjoying some reprieve from easing material costs in a still-strong housing market, where home prices continue to march higher. 

“The single-family building market has moved off the unsustainably hot pace of construction of last fall and has reached a still hot but more stable level of activity,” NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz said in a statement.

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 35 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months. The report also showed that current sales conditions and prospective buyer traffic advanced. At the same time, sales expectations for the next six months remained unchanged.

Read the full article here. 

Vacation Home Sales Skyrocket!

The National Association of Realtors released a 2021 Vacation Home Counties Report.
“In 2020, the share of vacation home sales to total existing-home sales increased to 5.5% (5% in 2019). Vacation home sales rose by 16.4%, outpacing the overall growth in existing-home sales of 5.6%. From January to April 2021, the share of vacation home sales to total existing-home sales rose to 6.7%. Vacation home sales jumped 57.2% year-over-year compared to the 20% year-over-year growth in total existing-home sales.

“Vacation homes are a hot commodity at the moment,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “With many businesses and employers still extending an option to work remotely to workers, vacation housing and second homes will remain a popular choice among buyers.”

 

 

*Note Y/Y percent change of +14% in median sales price in a vacation home county compared to our previous market statistics that show a percent change of +86% in median sales price for homes in short term rental specific areas in Sevier County.

Click here to read more from Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research at the National Association of Realtors.

Asking Prices have Leveled Off

Redfin’s Tim Ellis published a Housing Market Update in which he notes the key housing market takeaways for 400+ U.S. Metro areas.

“The housing market’s temperature may be starting to drop by a degree or two. Both pending sales and asking prices began to decline or flatten in the four weeks ending May 30. It’s too soon to tell if these are early seasonal changes or the start of the post-pandemic cooldown we predicted earlier this year. The period in question includes the beginning of Memorial Day weekend, which this year marked a return to “normal” life. It may also have marked the beginning of a return to a more “normal” housing market. We should know more as we continue to track the latest data over the next few weeks.”

Indicators of last month’s history-making housing market:

  • A record-high median home sale price of $355,558, up a record 24% year over year.
  • A record high of 52% of homes sold for more than their list price, up from 26% the same period a year earlier.
  • A record-high 102.0% average sale-to-list price ratio, which measures how close homes are selling to their asking prices. This means that the average home sold for 2.0% more than its asking price. A year ago, it sold for 1.5% below asking.
  • A record low of 16 days on market for homes that sold during the period, down from 37 days from the same period in 2020.

 

Early indicators that the housing market may be starting to soften:

Each of the metrics highlighted in the following list set a new housing record going back at least as far as 2012, when Redfin’s data began.

  • Pending home sales fell 3% from the four-week period ending May 2, compared to a 2% increase over the same period in 2019. Compared to 2020, they are up 38%.
  • Asking prices fell $2,500 from the four-week period ending May 23 to a median of $354,975, up 11% from the same period in 2020.
  • New listings of homes for sale were down 8% from the same period in 2019, and are down 5% from the 2021 high, which was set during the four-week period ending May 2. During the same period in 2019, new listings fell 2%.
  • Active listings (the number of homes listed for sale at any point during the period) fell 37% from the same period in 2020.

Read the full article here which contains stats for home sale prices, asking prices, pending sales, and new listings among many other things. 

May Market Report

May Market Report

Check out the current market report for May!

Average days on market decreased by 20% compared to last year. Average price rose by 86% from $301,144 to $562,510 this year!

 

 

Land

May Market Report

A Quick Snapshot of the Weekly Housing Trends: 

Realtor.com’s research team releases weekly housing trend key finding. This week they relayed, “The number of new sellers has climbed from a year ago in the last 6 weeks, yet another measure highlighting the stark change between this year and last year. Despite the influx of sellers, the number of homes actively for sale is still down and homes continue to sell quickly and for higher prices.”

A quick snap shot of the Weekly Housing Trends: 

  • Median listing prices grew at 15.5 percent 
  • New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were up 8 percent, making this the 6th consecutive week of increases over last year.
  • Total active inventory remains 51 percent below this time last year.
  • Time on market was 32 days faster than last year

Click here to read the entire article & see a comparison chart that compares March to May. 

2020 Year-End Real Estate Market Statistics specific to residential sales in Gatlinburg

Gatlinburg Information

Average Price

Despite the outlier in June – notice the increase during the 4th quarter.

Total Average Price - 2020 Year End Real Estate Gatlinburg
Total Average Price – 2020 Year End Real Estate Gatlinburg
Average Price (Bedrooms 1 -3) 2020 Year End Real Estate Gatlinburg
Average Price (Bedrooms 1 -3) 2020 Year End Real Estate Gatlinburg
Average Price (Bedrooms 4 -6) 2020 Year End Real Estate Gatlinburg
Average Price (Bedrooms 4 -6) 2020 Year End Real Estate Gatlinburg
Average Price ( Total and Bedrooms 1 -6) 2020 Year End Real Estate Gatlinburg
Average Price ( Total and Bedrooms 1 -6) 2020 Year End Real Estate Gatlinburg

 

Days on Market

Despite the outlier in July – days on market stayed relatively close to 100 days during 2020.

Total Days on Market - Gatlinburg
Total Days on Market – Gatlinburg
Days on Market (Bedroom 1-3)
Days on Market (Bedroom 1-3)
Days on Market (Bedroom 4-6)
Days on Market (Bedroom 4-6)
Days on Market - Total and Bedrooms 1-6
Days on Market – Total and Bedrooms 1-6

 

2020 Year-End Real Estate Market Statistics

Residential

Have a look at the year-end 2020 graphs below. It’s very interesting to look at the average price and days on market correlation over the last 4 years. Days on market is flat from 2019 to 2020, after a 20% decrease in both 2017 and 2018. While the average price continues to increase by 23% from 2019 to 2020, after an increase of 11% from 2018 to 2019, and a 10% increase from 2017-2018.

Average Price 2017 - 2020
Average Price 2017 – 2020

 

Days on Market 2017-2020
Days on Market 2017-2020

 

Single Family Homes – 2020

Single Family Homes Average Sales Price vs Average List Price
Single Family Homes Average Sales Price vs Average List Price
Single Family Homes - Days on Market
Single Family Homes – Days on Market
Single Family Home - Average Price Per Square Foot
Single Family Home – Average Price Per Square Foot

 

Condos – 2020

Condo - Average Sale vs Average List Price
Condo – Average Sale vs Average List Price
Condo - Days on Market
Condo – Days on Market

 

Condo - Average Price per Square Foot
Condo – Average Price per Square Foot

 

Land

Average land prices increased year over year from 2017 – 2020; 15% 2017 – 2018, 17% 2018 – 2019, and 16% 2019 – 2020.

Land - Average Price 2017 -2020
Land – Average Price 2017 -2020

 

Land - Sales Price vs Listing Price
Land – Sales Price vs Listing Price

 

Land - Days on Market
Land – Days on Market

 

A look forward

“Many experts are predicting another strong housing market in 2021. They are forecasting increased demand from buyers who delayed purchasing homes because of the pandemic; from existing homeowners who need larger spaces to accommodate parents working from home and children attending school virtually; and from condo owners who are seeking to escape multifamily buildings for single-family houses to mitigate exposure to the virus. The ability to tour homes and close on purchases virtually will make buying a home simpler in 2021.”

You can read the full Washington Post article here.

Check back with us here on the first Saturday of each month to get the latest Smoky Mountain Real Estate stats. 

*Note: statistics collected using the Bluff Mountain, Chalet Village, Cobbly Nob, Douglas Lake, Gatlinburg, Jones Cove, Kodak, New Center, Pigeon Forge, Pittman Center, Sevierville, Seymour, and Wears Valley areas.

Two of the forty-five most beautiful places in the U.S, as named by Country Living Magazine, in the Great Smoky Mountains!

Cades Cove falls at number 28 on the list.

Country Living Magazine says this, “When you visit this isolated valley in the Great Smoky Mountains it feels like you’ve stepped back in time.”

 

The Blue Ridge Parkway falls at number 42 on the list.

Country Living Magazine says, “This stretch of road that meanders 469 miles through the Appalachian Mountains is the most visited place in the U.S. National Park Service.”

You can find the entire Country Living article here.

Sevier County Market Statistics for March 2019

March 2019 Residential Market Statistics for Sevier County, TN

 

Sevier County Homes

464 homes sold in Sevier County from January to March of 2019.
486 homes sold from January to March of 2018.
Sales are down 5%.
Average price has increased by 15% and is up by $36,000.
Average price is $274,582.
Available Inventory is down 12%, and Volume up by 10%.

 

Gatlinburg

65 homes sold in Gatlinburg from January to March of 2019.
87 homes sold from January to March of 2018.
Sales are down by 25%.
Average price has increased by 23% and is up by $50,000.
Average price is $274,277.
Available Inventory is down 25%, and Volume is down 8%.

 

Pigeon Forge

90 homes sold in Pigeon Forge from January to March of 2019.
100 homes sold from January to March of 2018.
Sales are down by 10%.
Average price has increased by 26% and is up by $70,000.
Average price is $341,226.
Available Inventory is down 19%, and Volume up by 13%.

 

Sevierville

147 homes sold in Sevierville from January to March of 2019.
150 homes sold from January to March of 2018.
Sales are down by 2%.
Average price is flat.
Average price is $240,738.
Available Inventory is down 9%,  and Volume down by 2%.

 

Wears Valley

26 homes sold in Wears Valley from January to March of 2019.
27 homes sold from January to March of 2018.
Sales are down by 4%.
Average price has increased by 32% and is up by $88,000.
Average price is $365,242.
Available Inventory is down 18%, and Volume is up by 27%.

Douglas Lake

12 homes sold on Douglas Lake from January to March of 2019.
11 homes sold from January to March of 2018.
Sales are up 9%.
Average price has increased by 82% and is up by $139,000.
Average price is $310,241.
Available Inventory is flat, and Volume up 99%

 

 

March 2019 - Land Real Estate Market Statistics for Sevier County, TN
March 2019 – Land Real Estate Market Statistics for Sevier County, TN

 

Sevier County Lots

139 lots sold in Sevier County from January to March of 2019.
137 lots sold from January to March of 2018.
Sales are up by 1%.
Average price has increased by 16% and is up by $8,000.
Average price is $59,851.
Available Inventory is down 10%, but Volume up by 18%.

Gatlinburg

40 lots sold in Gatlinburg from January to March of 2019.
21 lots sold from January to March of 2018.
Sales are up by 90%.
Average price has increased by 35% and is up by $14,000.
Average price is $56,565.
Available Inventory is up by 1%, and Volume up by 157%.

 

Chalet Village

13 lots sold in Chalet Village from January to March of 2019.
13 lots sold from January to March of 2018.
Sales are flat.
Average price is down by 12% and is down by $5,000.
Average price is $44,573.
Available Inventory is down 26%, and Volume is down 12%.

 

Pigeon Forge

17 lots sold in Pigeon Forge from January to March of 2019.
11 lots sold from January to March of 2018.
Sales are up 55%.
Average price has decreased by 44% and down by $20,000.
Average price is $25,494.
Available Inventory is down 18%, and Volume down by 14%.