Our friends at the LTW Group shared with us a presentation by Chief Market Strategist for Residential Finance, Barry Habib.

He answered the questions:

• What’s going to happen with interest rates?
• Is the value of my home going to decrease?
• What’s the forecast for the real estate market in 2023?

What is going to happen with  interest rates?!

The ten year treasury bond and the mortgage rate have a normal spread of 175 – 200bp. 

Should this trend continue – Barry Habib, chief market strategist for Residential Finance, predicts that treasury bonds will come down to three which means mortgage rates will be closer to 5%.

Will the value of my home decrease?

According to the S&P Case-Shiller U.S. National House Price Index, during 8 of the last 9 recessions homes home values went up during and after the recession. 

The only time this didn’t happen was during 2006. 

In 2006 builders built more homes than ever before. 

Household formations dropped! (A household formation is the formation of a new household – think when your adult child moves out of your home.) 

Why did household formations drop in 2006?

On average, an adult moves out of their parents home at the age of 33. When we step back to look at the birth rates of Generation X we see a sharp decline. 

Are we on the brink of another housing bubble?

Quick answer – no! There are no outlandish mortgaging programs out there right now. 

Ultimately, a housing bubble comes down to supply and demand. 

What effects supply?

• Builders finishing homes 
• The number of homes that have to be retired. 

Where does demand come from?

• Household formations. 

 

Babib’s forecast for 2023:

• Low single digit appreciation
• Rents will continue to rise

Huge thanks to our friends at the LTW Group for sharing this fantastic information with us!! 

The LTW Group has a ton of resources and programs that allow buying right now a painless process. Reach out to them today! 

A question everyone wishes we knew the answers to!

While we might not know for sure, we can share a few opinions from industry experts.

Are housing prices going to drop in Gatlinburg, Tennessee?

The short answer: Prices are likely to drop further, but not by as much as they did during the housing bust. 

“It was different in 2008, 2009 because that drop in prices was because of a push from sellers,” said Jeff Tucker, senior economist at Zillow. “Because of foreclosures and short sales there were a lot of extremely motivated sellers who were willing to take a loss on their homes.”

The previous housing crash the inventory of homes for sale was 4x high that it is now! Current inventory is still lower than pre-pandemic levels, which is keeping prices strong.

 

How much are housing prices going to drop?

“Unlike the run-up in prices during the pandemic that caused home values in markets across the country to surge, the cooling off will be more regional, said Tucker.”

 

Tucker predicts there will be a small decline in the Southeast.

 

What does a housing price decline mean for sellers?

Because we’re likely to see a smaller decline in prices in our area – it’s still a great time to sell.

Steven James, the president and chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices New York Properties, suggests, “The best strategy for sellers is to start at the right price. The last thing you want in a shifting market is to have something sit.”

We keep a beat on the market statistics monthly, you can see the latest one here. 

 

Are sellers still receiving multiple offers? Are homes still selling over asking?

Lawrence Yun, chief chief economist at the NAR, answers these questions on a National level, ““Despite weaker sales, multiple offers are still occurring with more than a quarter of homes selling above list price due to limited inventory. The current lack of supply underscores the vast contrast with the previous major market downturn from 2008 to 2010, when inventory levels were four times higher than they are today.”

Next week we’ll explore what this looks like locally – while we can’t provide information about multiple offers, we CAN answer some questions about list to sale price ratios! 

 

Are prices falling?

Yun says, “Tight supply continues to put pressure on home prices, with an increase of 8.4% from September 2021. Prices climbed at all price points. This makes 127 consecutive months of annual increases.”

“Prices are cooling, however. September marked the third straight month-to-month price decline, which usually fall this time of this year.”

 

Do we know if they will continue to fall?

Not quite yet, but we’ll keep you informed monthly with market statistics. Did you see last month’s? Check it out here 

 

During the spring home buying boom Zillow made a big claim – home prices would would soar another 17.8% between February 2022 and February 2023. 

Weeks later the Pandemic fizzled.. Zillow slashed its home price outlook. 

In September, the outlook was revised down to 1.2%

Now Zillow expects the U.S. Home values to rise 1.4% 

“Back in May, Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi told Fortune that rising mortgage rates coupled with “overvalued” home prices would push the U.S. housing market into a housing correction. A housing correction being a period where the U.S. housing market—which got priced to 3% mortgage rates—would work towards equilibrium. In every market, that’d translate into a sharp decline in home sales. It’d also, Zandi said, put frothy markets at risk of home price corrections.

That’s exactly what we saw this summer: Home sales plummeted across the nation, and frothy markets in the Western half of the country also saw declining home prices.”

Zillow researchers write, “”Across the country, affordability challenges have pushed potential buyers to the sidelines. Of course, this demand destruction has been more pronounced in some markets than in others. Markets with the highest prices a year ago saw disproportionately larger declines in active demand in the 12 months that followed.”

Heading into 2023 Zillow predicts the home price correction will loose steam in some markets while it picks up steam in other places. 

Both Knoxville and Morristown are predicted to rise 5% over the coming year. 

Read more here!