2023 Housing Market Forecast


Our friends at the LTW Group shared with us a presentation by Chief Market Strategist for Residential Finance, Barry Habib.

He answered the questions:

  • What’s going to happen with interest rates?
  • Is the value of my home going to decrease?
  • What’s the forecast for the real estate market in 2023?

What is going to happen with  interest rates?!

The ten year treasury bond and the mortgage rate have a normal spread of 175 – 200bp. 

Should this trend continue – Barry Habib, chief market strategist for Residential Finance, predicts that treasury bonds will come down to three which means mortgage rates will be closer to 5%.

Will the value of my home decrease?

According to the S&P Case-Shiller U.S. National House Price Index, during 8 of the last 9 recessions homes home values went up during and after the recession. 

The only time this didn’t happen was during 2006. 

In 2006 builders built more homes than ever before. 

Household formations dropped! (A household formation is the formation of a new household – think when your adult child moves out of your home.) 

Why did household formations drop in 2006?

On average, an adult moves out of their parents home at the age of 33. When we step back to look at the birth rates of Generation X we see a sharp decline. 

Are we on the brink of another housing bubble?

Quick answer – no! There are no outlandish mortgaging programs out there right now. 

Ultimately, a housing bubble comes down to supply and demand. 

What effects supply?

  • Builders finishing homes 
  • The number of homes that have to be retired. 

Where does demand come from?

  • Household formations. 


Babib’s forecast for 2023:

  • Low single digit appreciation
  • Rents will continue to rise

Huge thanks to our friends at the LTW Group for sharing this fantastic information with us!! 

The LTW Group has a ton of resources and programs that allow buying right now a painless process. Reach out to them today!